Fester's Place

Moved Again

2008-06-15T22:28:00.001-04:00

The Newshoggers crew has moved again. I'm now writing at a dedicated URL:WWW.NEWSHOGGERS.COM

Another Move

2007-08-01T09:43:00.000-04:00

Hey all --- Just another pointer post. I am working with a great group of writers over at the NewsHoggers partnership.http://www.cernigsnewshog.blogspot.comI'll see you there

SWITCHING TO TYPEPAD

2006-12-12T12:40:00.000-05:00

I have had it with Blogger, I have not been able to post for most of the past week, the e-mail post service is sporadic and I have no predictability as to when the blog will actually be up. I have been getting what I have been paying for --- nothing, so it is time for me to move onto TypePad. The initial website will be a new beta blog, and as I have more time, I am going to be building

Almost Time to Change

2006-12-08T15:09:00.000-05:00

I am getting to the point of moving Fester's Place over to Typepad --- Blogger just has too many strange outages, eaten posts, messed up scripting, and all of this occurs for no apparant reason.

Why I don't like Barnett

2006-12-08T14:43:00.000-05:00

Thomas Barnett is one freaking smart dude. That is obvious. And it is also obvious that he has the ear of quite a few people who can make decisions at the national level. However I have a very hard time buying into his seriousness at times, and a post at his blog today illustrates why. But before I go further, let me give you a basic gloss of his views:His basic idea is that this era of

Pittsburgh --- Learn to Drive

2006-12-07T19:39:00.000-05:00

I know, I know, we had a freak snowstorm today. Pittsburgh is only located in the northeast, and we have not seen snow in nine months. It is an unexpected event, a minor snow flurry in December in this city, so I can understand how everyone panicked this afternoon as they forgot how to drive. That half an inch of snow and a patina of ice destroyed your reflexes. I understand. So before the

Baghdad Troop Level Confirmation

2006-12-05T20:56:00.000-05:00

Every now and then, it is nice to see outside confirmation that I can occassionally get things right. Newsweek in an article on Iraq's political and security arrangements has an interesting nugget: A four-star general who declined to be identified discussing a confidential conversation told of this encounter with Gen. Peter Chiarelli, who was in charge of day-to-day ground operations. "Do you

Draft Thoughts for 2007

2006-12-04T11:23:00.000-05:00

This is a football post and not a military manpower post. The two teams that I follow fairly intensely, the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-4 defensive teams that rely on their outside linebackers to provide their effective passrush. The inside linebackers are their primary run stoppers. Both teams' linebacker corps look like they could be infused with youth next year.

More Engineers to Iraq?

2006-11-30T10:57:00.000-05:00

I just saw the following from the Army Times:The Pentagon is developing plans to send four combat engineer battalions of reserves to Iraq early next year to boost security in Baghdad, senior defense officials said Wednesday.The battalion strength would total about 3,500 troops, officials said, adding that the units would come from around the United States and have already done a tour in Iraq.

Finding the Cliff

2006-11-30T10:27:00.000-05:00

Spork caught this interesting piece from the Washington Post:Bush sought to pre-empt the growing clamor to draft plans to withdraw the more than 140,000 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq, most notably by a high-level commission headed by former Secretary of State James C. Baker III and former Indiana Rep. Lee H. Hamilton. Although he was not asked directly about the panel's recommendations, which

More Casino Thoughts

2006-11-30T10:14:00.000-05:00

One of my hobbyhorses for the past year has been the slots parlor revenue projections. Mainly, I believe that the Harrah proposal for Station Square, in partnership with Forest City Enterprises is full of shit and projecting pie in the sky revenue levels.Evidently the State of Pennsylvania agrees with me. The Tribune Review (h/t Burgh Report) reports that the Northside proposal advanced by

Not Good (Iraq Edition Part 1,109)

2006-11-29T11:33:00.000-05:00

From the APLawmakers and cabinet ministers loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have suspended participation in parliament and the government to protest Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's summit with U.S. President George W. Bush. A statement issued Wednesday by the 30 lawmakers and five Cabinet ministers said their action was necessary because the meeting constituted a "provocation to the

Sitting on a goldmine

2006-11-28T17:12:00.001-05:00

Chris Briem at Nullspace takes a quick look at parking behavior in Pittsburgh over the past couple of years. The data suggests that the city is sitting on a goldmine: The parking sales tax rate increased from 31% to 50% (a 61% increase) in recent years as a stop gap way to generate revenue for the city. But if you look at the time series of parking tax revenue, the $$ collected went up from 30.9

Wow -- Another Flip

2006-11-28T16:28:00.000-05:00

This was some surprising news --- Democrats win in Pennsylvania's 156th House District, giving them a one seat majority in the Pennsylvania State House. The Democrat was down after election day and the provisional ballots were counted but was able to close the gap and build a small lead on the absentee ballots. Wow --- all I have to say, although I am prepared to be shocked if there is no

A Simple Reminder on Metrics

2006-11-28T11:52:00.000-05:00

Metrics are useful things as they convey concise information and allow comparisons between actual and ideal situations fairly easily. However they are easily manipulated. Housing Bubble Casualty notes how the California Association of Realtors is playing with their metrics: The minimum household income first-time buyers needed to purchase a home at $478,710 in California in the third quarter

Pats-Bears, and other football thoughts

2006-11-27T08:37:00.000-05:00

Damn that was a good game yesterday, ugly but good. Ben Watson needs to be consistently lugging a football with him for the next two weeks with no exception. Two forced fumbles and a tip ball interception are game killers. Asante Samual is working himself into a very nice new contract with three interceptions. The Patriots need to draft themselves a first or second round corner this

Violent ROI

2006-11-25T21:21:00.000-05:00

The US government has been spending roughly $100,000,000,000 dollars per year in a losing counterinsurgency and occupation in Iraq. It is losing because we have never had a coherent strategy objective that was compatible with all of the veto players in Iraqi politics. We are losing now because the Sunni insurgency has effectively taken down the functioning of a modern state, and loyalties have

Of Coase, the winner pays

2006-11-19T20:46:00.000-05:00

Just want to blog on something I saw earlier this week in the paper version of the Tribune ReviewPittsburgh should get at least $290 million from the casino applicant who wins the license for a slots parlor in the city, members of the Pittsburgh Gaming Task Force said Wednesday. St. Louis-based Isle of Capri Casinos would pay that much for a new arena, so the other applicants should offer the

Economic and State Power relationships

2006-11-19T18:33:00.000-05:00

Freshman year economics is a wonderful set of tools and thought processes that should let reasonably intelligent students learn how to ask questions that will produce even more interesting questions later on. However, it is a massively simplified representation of reality because Econ 101 is a survey course of a very large discipline. And it thus fails to do justice to most interesting problems

Where are the Brigades

2006-11-16T11:25:00.000-05:00

Just saw this over at Steve Gilliard's blog, from the Guardian: Point one of the strategy calls for an increase rather than a decrease in overall US force levels inside Iraq, possibly by as many as 20,000 soldiers. This figure is far fewer than that called for by the Republican presidential hopeful, John McCain. But by raising troop levels, Mr Bush will draw a line in the sand and defy Democratic

Surprising Factoid

2006-11-15T12:37:00.000-05:00

Just saw this a couple of minutes ago, from the San Jose Mercury News: A confidential analysis of Internet search queries and a random sample of Web pages taken from Google and Micrsoft's giant Internet indexes showed that only about 1 percent of all Web pages contain sexually explicit material.I have nothing to really comment on here, but I am just surprised. If you asked me in a man on the

And I got nothing

2006-11-13T09:46:00.000-05:00

At first glance, I had next to nothing to write about the post-election period as I was coming down from both an adreneline high of winning an election that I worked on, and also from exhaustion. I knocked on doors, peeled out in cul-de-sacs, rappelled down hills, and contorted myself to avoid getting hit on the shoulderless sides of Babcock Boulevard. I talked to people who had never voted for

First Thoughts on PA House Races

2006-11-09T21:14:00.000-05:00

Just a couple of first thoughts as I finally slow down from my CNN feed for the night, and I am restricting these thoughts to Pennsyvania. 1) Republican candidates who are not batshit insane and were prepared did better than candidates who got hit with a surprisingly tough race or had massive personal issues in their closets. 2) I spent the past week or so up in some heavily

Lieberman's Arbitage Point

2006-11-08T14:27:00.000-05:00

Joe Lieberman (narcistists for CT) is looking to continue his core political competency of extracting political rent from the Democratic Party to his own positions. Hey, he won the election, that is his right, but the Democratic Party has a few simple tools it can use to reduce Lieberman's leverage. The most important point is that this leverage position is short term, no more than two years.

National House Strategy Thoughts

2006-11-08T02:29:00.000-05:00

1) Damn, challenging races all over the place pays off. 2) The Republican walls are pretty strong when they have a chance to prepare for a slug fest. 3) The decision to spend 3 million to support Tammy Duckworth by Rahm Emmanual and the DCCC was a really freaking brilliant decision when there are a half dozen races that Dems may be losing by under 2,000 votes in cheap ass races. 4) I am

We win

2006-11-07T23:23:00.000-05:00

Just a couple of minutes ago, I as a committed Democrat experienced something very strange. Victory. CNN has called a minimum of plus 15 for the Dems in the House. Very nice, even as we wait for three seats in PA to come in. PS: My wife notes that I should not blog intoxicated.

Time to Win

2006-11-06T21:18:00.000-05:00

Go Vote on TuesdayPoll Locator for Allegheny County Residents: HereElection celebration party is at the IBEW Hall on Carson and Hot Metal Street: Starts after the polls close. Wednesday is time to sleep, tomorrow we win

More on Reserve Mobilization

2006-11-05T20:16:00.000-05:00

One of the things that I have been tracking has been the dwell time for US active duty units. This desired dwell time for an active duty unit is twice as long as the deployed combat time. This is not happening, and has not been happening for a while, as combat brigades and divisions are going to Iraq and Aghanistan for twelve months with eleven to fifteen months of dwell time between

Time to be serious

2006-11-04T07:02:00.000-05:00

Okay, odds are I am going blogging silent for the next couple of days as a series of fourteen hour days door knocking, van driving and phone banking will be sucking up my time. This is the time to put our feet and our butts where our voices and wallets have been for the past six months, so let's win this election.

More 2008 House Thoughts

2006-11-03T08:25:00.000-05:00

Just a couple of more thoughts this morning on the 2008 landscape. As I said last night the poltical environment will become less anti-Republican due to reversion to the mean, although a good, loud circular firing squad with multiple factions each trying to be the bestest, and greatest PURE REPUBLICAN could make this prediction inoperative. The first major contributor to an environment where

Thinking about the 2008 House Election

2006-11-02T20:55:00.000-05:00

I am getting too optimistic. I know this, I am in the end of campaign bubble where the information filter is thick and very effective in only being optimistic, but when I see predictions by people outside of the filter such as Stuart Rothenberg predicting big gains, I think that there is some justice towards my optimism. So after a good night of phone banking and enjoying the end of the shift

The Roads to Baghdad

2006-11-02T10:31:00.000-05:00

Logistics are the key to winning hearts and minds, as well asconducting military operations. Starving, desperate people huddledtogether for warmth during the cold winter months are not people whoare favorably disposed towards a central government that has provenitself incapable of providing food, fuel and jobs for the population.Instead loyalty will be transferred to whomever is showing

Canvassing Updates

2006-11-01T13:49:00.000-05:00

Okay just a couple of quick things on Get out the Vote: Hard money candidate advocacy canvassing opportunity opening up this weekend helping out Jason Altmire win over Missy Hart.They're looking for people to do at least 2 days min 6 hrs/day @$12/hr. The max is 4 days at 11 hours per day.When: Saturday, Nov. 4 – Tuesday, Nov. 7Call: 412-721-8707 (Ask for John)Email: canvass4change@gmail.com(Paid

Pray for Decent Weather

2006-10-30T08:58:00.000-05:00

We are in the stretch run, almost all the TV ads have been bought and shot, the last set of mailers are being folded and stamped within the next three days, and the GOTV process is moving into highest gear by Thursday evening. We are getting close, and I expect to see little sleep from Thursday to Wednesday next week.About the only thing outside of our control is the weather. In the Pittsburgh

Soft Landing and Pause, or a harbinger

2006-10-27T10:46:00.000-04:00

Today's preliminary 3rd Quarter GDP report is a stinker. 1.6% growth below expectations of 2.1% growth for the time period July to September. There were a couple of nasty events during this time period including record and near record high petroleum prices and higher interest rates compared to now and the spring. So what can we take away from this? Well there are two different stories that can

As they stand up, we stand down Watch Part MCM

2006-10-27T09:53:00.000-04:00

I actually read through Central Command's press releases as this is an interesting source to see an angle of what is going on. A couple of days ago, an insurgent group ambushed an Iraqi police column and inflicted twenty five dead and twenty or so wounded Iraqi police. Here is the Centcom press release on the incident: The police under fire fought back in intense house to house fighting.

Some interesting stories in interesting races

2006-10-24T14:57:00.000-04:00

--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl--AZ-01: Rick Renzi --AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth--CA-04: John Doolittle --CA-11: Richard Pombo--CA-50: Brian Bilbray--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave--CO-05: Doug Lamborn--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell--CT-04: Christopher Shays--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan--FL-16: Joe Negron--FL-22: Clay Shaw--ID-01: Bill Sali--IL-06: Peter Roskam--IL-10: Mark Kirk--IL-14: Dennis Hastert--IN-02: Chris Chocola --IN-08

2 Weeks till the election

2006-10-24T14:01:00.000-04:00

Fourteen days and a couple more hours and we will see if we can install some accountability and common sense back into our national government. I am getting optimistic, but there is still a lot of work left to do.Absentee Ballots must be requested from the State today. Go to http://www.dos.state.pa.us and follow through on the election linksAbsentee ballots are due into your home county by 5:

USC for National Championship Game

2006-10-23T11:34:00.000-04:00

Reading off of Kevin Drum's USC football blogging this morning got me thinking:I have to say that yesterday's football results gave me a bit of relief. Like most USC fans, three consecutive squeakers over mid-tier teams had made me pretty nervous about this year's prospects. I really couldn't blame the AP pollsters for their aggressive efforts to find someone — anyone — other than USC to put in

Too Early 2007 Pats Draft Thoughts

2006-10-23T11:04:00.000-04:00

The Patriots are looking good right now playing 2001 style ugly ball. The wide receivers are slowly coming around, while the running game is just good enough to force the opponenets to cheat safeties up thereby creating more space for the multiple tightends to create openings for themselves. It is not a pretty offensive system, and it can be beaten if the opposing defense is able to both stop

Props to Congressman Doyle

2006-10-20T21:04:00.000-04:00

I had the opportunity to speak with Congressman Doyle for a brief amount of time this afternoon and I did a little bit of verifying after the fact. Congressman Doyle stated that he has been working his tail and his donor rolls off for Jason Altmire and other PA federal election candidates for fundraising and visibility purposes. That is true. Congressman Doyle has been very supportive of the

A Quasi-Serious Suggestion

2006-10-20T11:15:00.000-04:00

The primary policy goal of the United States for Iraq going forward is to minimize the damage that we have inflicted against our national interests. How much damage limitation can we do is up for debate, but that should be the primary goal. Moqutada Sadr and his movement of poor, urban Shi'ites are an interesting movement. Militant, nationalistic, centralizers (as they don't sit on top of any

Operation Whack a Mole

2006-10-20T11:06:00.000-04:00

LastJune, when Operation Forward Together was announced, I waspessimistic about its chances of success:

I think that the long term effect will be fairly low,but that this is an engagement in security theatre targeted at bothAmerican and Iraqi domestic opinion. This Operation Forward Togetheris designed to show that the PEOPLE IN CHARGE ARE DOING SOMETHING!!!!!However I don't think

PA-14 Call to Action

2006-10-19T13:16:00.000-04:00

Okay, we are in the final stretch, and Democrats look like they are inpretty good shape for the House, and a bit tougher shape for theSenate. One of the reasons that Democrats are in good shape for theHouse is that the list of winnable seats still seems to be expanding.To continue this expansion, second and third tier campaigns needresources, and resources means money for the next two weeks

Job Searching at Panera

2006-10-19T11:09:00.000-04:00

As I am looking for work this morning, I have been enjoying my bottomless cup of coffee at Panera. This is a pretty good deal, free wireless, a plug, and plenty of coffee. However I am a bit irked at the sensitivity of the network filtering/blocking software that Panera uses as it is preventing me from completing an effective job search pass through the Post-Gazette this morning. As everyone

The Folly Campaign Winner

2006-10-19T10:49:00.000-04:00

Every election season has a couple of bad campaigns in big races. They may be bad for personal reasons, they may be bad for policy reasons, and they may be bad for the comedy value. Alan Keyes for instance fit all three categorizations last cycle. It looked like Katherine Harris (FL-Sen [R]) would have been the hands down winner of this fine distinction if voting stopped on September 15, but

Casino Thoughts

2006-10-19T10:12:00.000-04:00

I have maintained the following couple of assumptions about the casino licensing process and these assumptions have informed all of my analysis and opinion:Even though the total social and economic NPV of slots parlors are pretty damn low, slots are coming as they are a great source of politically free money.The goal of the region should be to minimize negative impacts and maximize probable gains

2nd Long Term Political Goal

2006-10-18T15:42:00.000-04:00

Via the Spork Incident is this LA Times OP-ED concerning the history of Iran Contra: Just a single important excerpt: Cheney and Addington are not the only veterans of the scandal who have resurfaced to help President Bush fight the war on terror. So have Elliot Abrams, John Bolton, Otto Reich, John Negroponte, John Poindexter, neoconservative Michael Ledeen and even Manucher Ghorbanifar, the

Changing of the Times

2006-10-18T14:17:00.000-04:00

The North Adams (Mass) Transcript is reporting the following about the pension arrangments of two people who have spent plenty of time in Congress; U.S. Rep. Bob Ney, the Ohio Republican who pled guilty Friday to conspiracy charges and faces up to 10 years in prison for taking bribes from lobbyist Jack Abramoff, will receive about $29,000 a year from his pension — for the rest of his life."He

Attack, Repeat Attack

2006-10-18T12:42:00.000-04:00

Well the Democratic Party is finally getting it. Going on the offensive is not a bad thing, and it has produced numerous positive results over the past three months. I have to applaud this recent news that the National Journal is reporting:While the DNC doesn't have $10M to just toss around to another campaign committee, the DNC apparently has decided to go into debt to come up with the extra

Nov. 8 Senate Scenarios

2006-10-17T12:04:00.000-04:00

The political season does not end near midnight on Nov. 7th or during the early hours of the morning on Nov. 8th. There are a couple of interesting Senate scenarios that we need to spin out. I'll work from the least interesting to the most interesting. (I am including as shorthand Bernie Sanders (I-VT) as a Democrat for caucusing purposes)1) Democrats win four or fewer net seats --- Senate is

Work Update

2006-10-16T21:53:00.000-04:00

As of this afternoon I have started doing some paid GOTV/voter identification work for America Votes-Pennsylvania SW PA office. I'll be doing this until the election and maybe a day or two after that. Just to be sure that I am not violating any disclosure agreements, election laws or confidences, I will not be wriing any further on any race that is going on in Pennsylvania at the Federal, State

Enjoying the Write-offs

2006-10-16T00:29:00.000-04:00

I have been getting more and more optimistic about the upcoming election as Republican strategic behavior is mimicing the strategic behavior of the Democrats in 2000, 2002, and 2004 where as the election draws ever closer, the weaker party is falling back ever closer to their core in an attempt to conserve resources for the most effecively marginal races. Political Wire is reporting that the

Patriots Cap Redistribution

2006-10-15T16:06:00.000-04:00

A poster over at PatsFan.com has an interesting table that describes how much of the unadjusted salary cap that each team spends on each coaching group. The Patriots spend significantly above the league average on the quarterbacks, and linebackers, while spending significantly below league average for the offensive line and wide receivers. They spend about the league average for running backs,

Weekend Update

2006-10-15T12:06:00.000-04:00

Just got back from my sister-in-law's wedding. The bride was beautiful, the ceremony was great, the party was hopping and the couple is happy. That is about all one can ask for a good wedding. Just a couple of quick thoughts from the trip out to New Jersey. 1) The TV ads for the ring around Philly Congressional Races are getting wicked nasty. I saw the NRCC attack ads against Murphy and they

15 Brigades through 2010

2006-10-11T11:53:00.000-04:00

MSNBC is reporting the following: WASHINGTON - The U.S. Army has plans that would keep the current level of troops in Iraq — about 15 brigades — through 2010, the top Army officer said Wednesday.The Army chief of staff, Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, cautioned that people not read too much into the planning, because it is easier to pull back forces than to get units prepared and deployed at the last

Classes of potential new Dem Congresscritters

2006-10-09T22:05:00.000-04:00

It is looking more and more likely that the Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives. The national mood is solidly against Republicans, solidly against Bush, and so far the public seems to be buying into the Democratic credible promise of oversight and adult supervision of the really dumb ideas from the Bush administration. The Foley cover-up meltdown has only confirmed in

1st Thoughts on N. Korea Nuke Test

2006-10-09T09:45:00.000-04:00

North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon. CNN Headline News was reporting that it was a weapon of between 10 to 15 kilotons. There is a big flurry of diplomatic moves going on right now, and the regional militaries have raised their alert status. I don't think that this is that big of a deal except that the cost of renting out the North Korean arsenal and manufacturing capabilities just got a

Wow -- I'm lame

2006-10-07T17:14:00.000-04:00

A buddy came over for a beer and some talk on the GOP implosion in Congress yesterday. Besides making the two very good points about the political mood by checking on how Fox is hedging their allegiances to the GOP by the redesign of their basic visual representation on their website and on FNC and that right now the best course of action for Democrats is to pass the popcorn, he

Force Harrah and PITG to raise on their Coase bids

2006-10-07T16:46:00.000-04:00

Okay, the sweepstakes to buy the Penguins looks to be about over with Canadian business man Jim Basille winning the auction. Good luck to him. He has indicated in the past a desire to move the team to Canada a couple of times, although he is currently saying that he is willing to let the Isle of Capri slots plan for funding of an

Defending Frist

2006-10-04T10:20:00.000-04:00

I do not like Bill Frist. I will always vote against him, and volunteer against any camapaign that he runs which is within working distance from my house. However his recent statements about Afghanistan and the Taliban do make a certain degree of sense and therefore I have to defend him. From Digby: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said Monday that the Afghan guerrilla war can never be

MA-Gov Ad

2006-10-02T19:52:00.000-04:00

I'm up in Massachusetts right now for family reasons, and my parents pointed out the following ad to me as one of the most memorable and funny ads that they remember seeing in a long while. I agree. The candidate is Christy Mihos --- I have no clue what his policy positions are but this is a good ad.YouTube link here

Patriots v. Bungles Thoughts

2006-10-02T10:58:00.000-04:00

Wow, the offensive line was able to dominate in both phases of the game yesterday. Light is becoming an excellent run blocking left tackle who still needs the occassional TE/RB help on edge rushers. Justin Smith (DE-Bengals) is a quality player --- still not good enough to justify the #4 pick, but a good player Lawrence Maroney is scary fast --- Dillon had a good game, but on the first

Use the Electoral Sledgehammer

2006-09-30T17:56:00.000-04:00

Democrats have been handed a two fisted twenty pound sledge hammer to swing at the Republican Party meta narrative this week if they are brave enough to take a risk. Here is the ad that I, a horrendous copy writer, would write:Deep, ominous voice: Elections are about choices. America needs leaders who will make good choices. The George W. Bush and his Republican Congress have failed to make

Credible Promises

2006-09-27T16:05:00.000-04:00

I think that the maximum promise that Democrats can make is that they will insist on oversight and planning to before President Bush can advance any part of his agenda. This is the ceiling on Democratic action if they are able to win a majority in one or both chambers of Congress as that majority will be very thin in the Senate and fairly narrow in the House and President Bush will still be

Opportunity Cost Democrats

2006-09-27T10:37:00.000-04:00

As I have become more optimistic about the chances of the Democrats being able to take a majority in at least one chamber, I have started to think more towards the future of building a better Democratic Party that is more reflective of my values. I have been involved in this project since 2003 when I jumped onboard for the Dean campaign, but this project seems to be accelerating and will

Senate Cycles

2006-09-27T09:33:00.000-04:00

I have become increasingly optimistic about the Democrats chances of making significant gains in both the House and the Senate. I can see a much more plausible path towards a majority in the House then the Senate because the ground is more favorable for movement in the House despite the gerrymandering and microtargetting of GOTV operations. This is because the 2006 Senate class is running on

Disco is back OR Hollowing out the Army

2006-09-26T15:26:00.000-04:00

ABC News is reporting that senior US Army officials want to expand the size of the active duty force by 60,000 individuals in future fiscal years. This is a good way to continue having the US Army see its rock bottom days of the mid-70s again as it already is seeing brigades train for combat deployment with no equipment and only half of its authorized manpower, bases are seeing their electricity

Burning through units

2006-09-25T15:46:00.000-04:00

I have a longer post on this subject for later on, but just two articles I want to peg. The first is from Steve Gilliard who posted a chunk from the New York Times: Members of the Third Infantry Division have been conducting training exercises in preparation for a third deployment to Iraq. But equipment for the training is short, and the time for it has been reduced. Col. Tom James, who

Are these our comparables?

2006-09-25T09:44:00.000-04:00

Via Fubar at Needlenose:

Health Maitenance Policy Idea

2006-09-25T07:58:00.001-04:00

I was watching an Over-50's soccer game yesterday, and noticed that there were at least three individuals still recovering from ACL surgery. I know that one of them had the full replacement with a cadavar ligament. I also noticed that about half of the players were in fairly decent shape considering their age. These two things got me thinking: what is the market and policies that supply

Looking For Work

2006-09-20T17:12:00.001-04:00

Okay, a couple of days ago, I alluded to a big, time intensive project that was going to eat into a significant chunk of my blogging time and production for a while moving forward. Now I can reveal what that project has been and will continue to be.JOB SEARCH '06 I had been looking on my free time for the past couple of months, and as of this afternoon, I will have a whole lot more free time, as

Reality Intervenes

2006-09-17T11:45:00.000-04:00

I have not posted in a bit, and over the next couple of weeks, I may not be able to post a whole lot either as reality intervenes... nothing too bad, just some time consuming things coming up.Sorry.

Racing to the T

2006-09-14T08:19:00.000-04:00

September 13th's Early Returns in the P-G has a throwaway line about the Casey-Santorum campaign: Early Returns has a theory: Santorum HQ keeps referring to Mr. Casey as "Bobby Casey Jr." in radio and TV ads because it makes him sound like a NASCAR driver. Frankly, it's working I don't think that this is the case, as the fundamental reason that the field was cleared by Bob Casey was that

Today is a

2006-09-13T13:35:00.000-04:00

a Daily Kitten type of day .... all I can say right now

More Casino Revenue Projection Disputes

2006-09-12T13:14:00.000-04:00

Via the Post Gazette, another casino revenue dispute, with a significant disparity between the optimistic, say anything approach, and a more cautious approach. And this time, it does not include a Pittsburgh proposal:A serious problem has developed in the effort to license a slots casino at The Meadows racetrack, as forecasts of gambling revenue made by the track owner differ significantly from

Robbing Peter to pay interest to Paul

2006-09-11T12:13:00.000-04:00

The Clauswitzian dictum that war is politics by another mean is no more prominent than in the field of counterinsurgency. Here, the counter-insurgent force should win almost every military fight at or above the platoon level. Here, the counter-insurgent force should be seeing massively imbalanced in their favor kill ratios. Here the counter-insurgent force should enjoy massive advantages of

Get Real --- avoiding reality

2006-09-08T16:23:00.000-04:00

Andrew Sullivan is still willfully blind when he is analyzing Iraqi politics, and he proves it again this morning: Charles Krauthammer seems to me to be on the right track. But even as he sketches the only potential hope for securing non-defeat in Iraq, it seems implausible. I fear Maliki's government is powerless against the Shiite militias that have increasingly infiltrated it. (emphasis

MapQuest Tech Question

2006-09-07T15:29:00.000-04:00

Today has been an interesting day at work. Mapquest has screwed up, and is listing my place of employment as a hotel. And evidently it is a popular hotel from the calls that we have been getting: Call 1: Can I rent rooms by the hour? Call 2: Do you have jacuzzi's? Call 3: Does the hotel bar card? Call 4: Can I walk to the stadium from there... why yes you can, but it is a good hike.

August Revisions for Baghdad (re: Force Levels Op Forward Together)

2006-09-07T11:46:00.000-04:00

I have been skeptical of success for Operation Forward Together (the plan to stabilize Baghdad for the third or fourth time) for a number of reasons. Most importantly, I thought that the force levels that were employed were too short: I think that the long term effect will be fairly low, but that this is an engagement in security theatre targeted at both American and Iraqi domestic

3 years

2006-09-07T11:07:00.000-04:00

Three years and a couple of hours --- that is how long I have been blogging at Fester's Place. I am slightly amazed, although each anniversary amazes me a little less, as this has become part of my routine in my life. I first started blogging on my own because I was politically frustrated and personally frustrated at my job. Writing analysis kept my mind engaged and kept me from throwing too

Football Time

2006-09-07T10:54:00.000-04:00

Yeah --- The football season starts tonight. I am unsure of how to read the Steelers this season as they seem to be adapting a boom or bust mentality on their offense with their newfound reliance upon Willy Parker. He is an inconsistent back with high upside, but also predictable downside. Now I think you can get away with that if that running back happens to be Barry Sanders, but Willy Parker

Idea Round-Up

2006-09-06T16:50:00.000-04:00

The Sprout Fund is hosting a great event this Saturday as they are looking for your ideas on how to use small and medium size grants to improve our region.... Be are part of a select group: concerned Pittsburghers who today will take the first steps towards creating a community blueprint for the city and region. You live here, you work here, you play here, you know this city inside and out, you

Issue Salience and Anger

2006-09-05T14:08:00.000-04:00

Joe Gandelman over at the Moderate Voice expressed some frustration that I think can be partially explained by the concept of issue salience and narrowing of the option space within the political environment. I continue to be struck at how downright angry some folks on the left and right are that anyone dare consider themselves a centrist or moderate...... So there is demand for accepting

Look at the faces

2006-09-05T09:46:00.001-04:00

I just grabbed the following image from Patrick Lang's site. It is from the Offi cial Weekly Report for the Multi-National Security Transition Command — Iraq (PDF)Notice anything? All the faces are blurred out. This is a photo taken at a training facility in the Kurdish area of Iraq, and there is still the significant fear that the identity of the Iraqi military will endanger their families..

I've Got Nothing

2006-09-05T09:43:00.000-04:00

I have written two long posts already this morning, and rereading them, I have absolutely nothing interesting or informative to say right now. So instead further bloviations, I strongly recommend that my readers go and read the following two posts: Cernig is tracking the public affairs reasoning for the delay in the US-Iraq military cooperation ceremoney. The short story is that the PR

Narrowing the battlefield (good indicator for Dems)

2006-09-03T19:56:00.000-04:00

As I have stated earlier, I am slowly getting more optimistic about significant Democratic gains this November. One of the quiet indicators that I have been looking at has been which party is trying to play as much smallball as possible and limit the field of play. In 2004, and 2002, that was the Democratic Party seeking to restrict the contested space to as few states and as few districts that

Labor Day Thoughts

2006-09-03T19:39:00.000-04:00

PSoTD is posing this question to a large number of bloggers, and I am proud that he included me on his list: What does the federal holiday, "Labor Day", really mean to you?When I was young, Labor Day was always the day that my family would do the one last hectic run around the house, make sure that our school uniforms were ironed, our notebooks labelled clearly with our names on them, and our bus

Condolences Round-up

2006-09-02T12:08:00.000-04:00

The Post-Gazette has gone wall to wall covering Mayor O'Connor's death, and the ascension of Luke Ravenstahl to the corner office on Grant Street. Jonathan Potts links to an excellent Trib tribute and offers some words of encouragement to Luke Ravenstahl: The Trib has a nice, simply state front-page obituary for Mayor Bob O'Connor. It's one time when the traditional, just-the-facts newspaper

Condolences

2006-09-01T22:47:00.000-04:00

I extend my condolences to Mayor O'Connor's family...

Nuclear Proliferation Rules

2006-09-01T14:04:00.000-04:00

John Cole at Balloon Juice writes about the non-event of the IEAE report on the Iranian nuclear programs to the UN Security Council: I can tell you, however, that no matter what Iran says they are doing, and no matter what we want them to do, they are pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons. The questions is what can and what should the rest of the world do?I replied in his comments: this

Pittsburgh Political Scene? (Ravenstahl, Ferlo, Lamb, Peduto edition)

2006-09-01T10:57:00.000-04:00

Okay, the Post-Gazette is reporting that City Council is back in session and worried about what is happening with the mayor's health. I share their concern and sympathy for his family. From all the rumors that are swirling around, Mayor O'Connor's health is fading fast. Now since this is a political blog, and not a medical blog, I want to speculate on the political implications of Mr. O'Connors

Informational Note on Troop Movements into Iraq

2006-08-31T22:14:00.000-04:00

No real analysis in this post, just a blurb I saw on Reuters The Pentagon said the U.S. force, which stood at 127,000 on July 25, now numbers 140,000. A defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. force likely will remain at about the current level in the coming months, but could shrink a bit by the end of the year depending on conditions in Iraq......... As

Fear diminishes our security

2006-08-31T17:11:00.000-04:00

The Big Fat Slob pointed out to me the following account of an Iraqi-American and his flight home: One of the two men who approached me first, Inspector Harris, asked for my id card and boarding pass. I gave him my boarding pass and driver's license. He said "people are feeling offended because of your t-shirt". I looked at my t-shirt: I was wearing my shirt which states in both Arabic and

Beer and the Economy

2006-08-30T12:48:00.000-04:00

As I was reading through Mike Shedlock's blog yesterday on the problems that the casual dining sector (Applebee's, TGI-Friday's etc) is having due to the slowing down of the economy since dining out is one of the first easy cuts in discretionary spending that most American families can make, I was thinking back to a back of the envelope proxy my dad used to measure how the local economy in

Baghdad Security Redux

2006-08-30T12:19:00.000-04:00

The chief of Baghdad's police stated that Baghdad should have security in twelve to eigtheen months.....Gen. Casey, commander of US forces in Iraq, believes that Iraqi forces, with minimal US support can take over security throughout the entire country in the next twelve to eighteen months.So it is good to see some agreement on timelines and capabilities between US and Iraqi leadership.... BUT

In Memorium

2006-08-29T11:43:00.000-04:00

h/t Steve GilliardKatrina

Successful Pittsburgh

2006-08-29T10:07:00.000-04:00

The Angry Drunk Bureaucrat is being mean. "O" is offering a tough question --- what constitutes a successful city, and how do we measure success in Pittsburgh. Seeing that I am part of the peanut gallery, I guess I have to chime in after I quote "O"'s trinity: My personal trinity of "success" involves jobs, low crime, and high quality of living. While these simple "measures of success" seem

Primary Loyalties in the Iraqi Army

2006-08-28T16:42:00.000-04:00

The Iraqi Army is a dysfunctional military force. It is locally raised, ethnically and sectarianally segregated force that is closely aligned to their local loyalty structures that existed before the war started. It is also massively underequipped and undersupported with a decrepit administrative infrastructure. We have seen Sunni Arab units throw down their weapons and strip from their