Oil chokepoint politics in Iraq
Oil infrastructure is long, linear, and fragile as hell. A single attack against a key node in the distribution and production system can knock the system out. We have seen that repeatedly in the mixed Sunni-Kurdish areas as the Sunni insurgents have knocked out the ability to export oil from Kirkuk and oil fields deeper in Kurdistan through an effective sabotage campaign against pipelines, junctions and bridges.These chokepoints allow for groups that either control the chokepoint or can legitimately threaten to seize usage control over the chokepoint an immense amount of veto power. The Sunni insurgency has an economic stranglehold on Kurdistan --- they can keep them from exporting hard currency producing oil for a very cheap expenditure of men and munitions. This greatly reduces Kurdish option space, while also reducing the central government's option space as it is cut off from funds it needs. The US instead picks up the tab driving down the willingness and ability to stay.
There is another chokepoint in the country that so far has not been squeezed. And that is Basra. There have been a couple of attacks, including one double boat suicide attack, against the southern oil export infrastructure, but on the whole, the southern infrastructure has been maintained in comparatively decent shape.
However that might be changing. Fadillah, a Shi'ite Islamic party that follows Moqtada Sadr's father, but has split from the current group of Sadrists in Parliament hold a strong political position within Basra. It is the dominant group there, beating out SCIRI and DAWA for control of the government. It is also a fairly localized group, with little national representation.
In order to improve its political position, Fadilah is threatening a work slowdown so that Iraq's southern fields and refineries only produce enough fuel to supply internal demand. This would take 1.2-1.5 million barrels of crude off the global market per day, leading to another $8-$10/barrel price increase if they follow through with this threat. If they follow through with the threat, the Baghdad government is broke within weeks. Fadilah has a short term veto position and leverage and it could cause permanent havoc if it decided to use it.
Military options to seize control of the infrastructure against Fadilah workers suck because the Sunni Arab insurgency has demonstrated how easy it is to knock out a system if the system engineers are telling the explosive placement teams where to attack for maximum effect. Never mind the specter of Iraqi Army units going house to house in Basra, as it would be a further incitement to civil war if those units were Sunni Arab or Kurdish units, and primary loyalties of the Shi'ite units are not towards the Baghdad central government.
Labels: insurgency, iraq, oil
posted by fester @ 12:33
3 Comments:
Thanks for the heads up into the Iraqi politics. The vast majority of attacks on oil infrastucture have occurred in the north. I assumed it was because the pipline takes the oil directly to Jordan. A direct attack on revenue. The pipeline from at least one of the southern oil fields to the transport terminal is underground and underwater. Harder to access. However, if anyone in Fadilah has read "Red Storm Rising" old Tom Clancey has told them how to wreck things properly.
Kirkrrt --- there are three primary pipeline pathways for Iraqi oil to export terminals. Here is a good link for a map:
U-Texas Library
The first is a Kirkuk to Haifa pipeline that was built around WWII and has been shut down for decades now. There is no export pipeline from Kirkuk to Jordan --- any exports that way goes via truck or rail, and that legal trickle has gone down dramatically in the past three years due to the insurgency. There is some exports to Jordan via a combination of smuggling and insurgent reselling of stolen oil, but that is a small quantity.
The next major pipeline route is from Kirkuk to Ceyhan Turkey. This is the major export route that has been hammered by the insurgency as it goes in and out of Sunni Arab areas. It has been effectively closed by violence. There are hardening attempts such as setting it underground each time a major repair is accomplished, but that is expensive, time consuming and so far ineffective.
The final major export route is from the southern oil fields to Basra and then from there underwater to two major oil export platforms at sea. These are the routes that are partially hardened and under threat from Fadilah
There is also an internal pipeline network that brings crude from the northern and southern fields to the centrally located refineries and then back out again. This system has been hammered hard over the past three years.
Silly me. I knew the northern pipeline went to Turkey.
I just looked up Ceyhan because the name sounded familiar. It is the same port that the new pipeline from Azerbaijan (BTC)is dumping into.
See my comments from a year ago. http://gnostinews.com/kirkrrt/prev1 Scroll down to May 16, 2005.
I remember there being a large U.S. Air Force base 20 miles from Ceyhan to provide pipeline security er..... I mean NATO stuff.
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